Sunday, June 7, 2020

[Planetary Information Engine] Coronavirus (COVID-19) Live Tracker Update 6/8/2020

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Planetary Information Engine Update - 6/8/2020
Hello, thanks for signing up for updates from the Planetary Information Engine.

The Planetary Information Engine delivers actionable intelligence (information) to residents of the Earth to aid them in their daily lives. Currently we are devoting a large number of resources to updating the Coronavirus Live Tracking site that I've established in response to the global, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The following figures and items have been updated recently:

Site-wide Updates:
  • This week research progress:
  • News archives expanded
  • Current research focus: Understanding the innate vs. adaptive immune system and their response to COVID-19
  • This letter special notes:
  • Re-iteration of mask wearing as a way to reduce COVID-19 transmission
  • Retraction of a major hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) study by The Lancet to faulty data
    • Most studies sill suggest HCQ is not an effective prophylactic or treatment for COVID-19
  • The "Grim" Newsletter
    • US coronavirus death toll surpasses 110,000
    • Visualizations of global and US coronavirus death statistics update
    • Update on Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) rate estimates
Estimates of Mortality
  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2
  • SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to the viruses that cause SARS and MERS, which have both caused severe outbreaks of respiratory disease.
  • Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 in the US seems relatively stable at 5.7%, Italy/Spain/France/UK at 10-15%.
    • Case fatality rate is the proportion of attributable number of deaths from a disease to reported (clinical) cases.
  • Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 in the US is estimated to be between 0.5% and 1.0% globally (Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020 - Pre-Print).
    • Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of attributable number of deaths to all those infected (includes sub-clinical and asymptomatic cases) and is expected to be lower than CFR.
    • This number can be estimated during an epidemic/pandemic from antibody (by determining seroprevalence) studies.
    • SARS-CoV-2 has a very high asymptomatic rate that makes it difficult to estimate this number, meaning that estimates will vary widely between region and testing methodology.
  • Seroprevalence is the prevalence of individuals with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a population, meaning the percent of individuals that have or have recently had the disease, regardless of disease status (asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or full-clinical presentation).
    • Current seroprevalence estimates range from 1.5% up to 30%, varying from region and testing methodology (Levesque and Maybury, 2020), meaning that a greater portion of any given population is infected with SARS-CoV-2 than will be identified from routine testing.
    • Widespread seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US.
  • Mortality rate is the attributable rate of deaths due to a disease in a population (e.g., out of 100,000 people what is the risk of death for a particular disease).
    • This number is not typically estimated until after an epidemic/pandemic.
    • Mortality rate of COVID-19 is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US.

Estimates of COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) - Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020)
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Global Case Fatality Rates (CFR) as of 06/07/2020 (Source: Johns Hopkins)
 
Country Infections Deaths CFR 95% Confidence Interval
USA 1,942,363 110,514 5.69% (5.66 - 5.72%)
Brazil 691,758 36,455 5.27% (5.22 - 5.32%)
Russia 467,073 5,851 1.25% (1.22 - 1.28%)
UK 287,621 40,625 14.12% (14.00 - 14.25%)
India 257,486 7,207 2.80% (2.74 - 2.86%)
Spain 241,550 27,136 11.23% (11.11 - 11.36%)
Italy 234,998 33,899 14.43% (14.28 - 14.57%)
Peru 196,515 5,465 2.78% (2.71 - 2.85%)
France 191,102 29,158 15.26% (15.10 - 15.42%)
Germany 185,750 8,685 4.68% (4.58 - 4.77%)
Iran 171,789 8,281 4.82% (4.72 - 4.92%)
Turkey 170,132 4,692 2.76% (2.68 - 2.84%)
China 84,191 4,638 5.51% (5.35 - 5.66%)
South Korea 11,814 273 2.31% (2.04 - 2.58%)
Australia 7,265 102 1.4% (1.13 - 1.67%)
Global 7,009,065 402,730 5.75% (5.73 - 5.76%)


Global daily deaths from COVID-19 - red = peak, green = reducing (OurWorldInData.org)
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Image

US Excess Deaths due to all causes as of May 23, 2020 - US CDC (2017-2020)
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US Excess Deaths due to COVID-19 as of May 9, 2020 - Washington Post
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Rt Covid-19 for US States - If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading 06/07/2020. (rt.live)
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COVID-19 Epidemiology & Transmission Information - History of Discovery
This section has been vastly revamped and expanded. It will now include archives going back to December/January 2019, February, and then going on forward through time. The archives can be accessed as follows:
Pre-COVID-19:SARS-CoV-1 | Dec. 2019/Jan. 2020 Archives | February 2020 Archives | March 2020 Archives | April 2020 Archives | May 2020 Archives
*Note: Archives are currently a work in progress as new articles are cataloged and compiled.

Recent headlines in March are below (to read the full list and for links click here):
  • 05/29/2020 - Evidence for Limited Early Spread of COVID-19 Within the United States, January–February 2020 | US CDC
  • 05/29/2020 - Coronavirus in charts: the fact-checkers correcting falsehoods | Nature
  • 05/30/2020 - U.S. cities fear protests may fuel new wave of virus outbreaks | CP24
  • 06/01/2020 - Hesitancy to resume activities marks reopening challenges: POLL | ABC News
  • 06/03/2020 - A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 | NEJM
  • 06/03/2020 - Protester who took part in downtown Columbus demonstrations tests positive for COVID-19 | NBC
  • 06/03/2020 - Hydroxychloroquine does not prevent Covid-19 infection if exposed, study says | STAT News
  • 06/04/2020 - Social bubbles may be the best way for societies to emerge from lockdown | MIT Tech Review
  • 06/04/2020 - Hydroxychloroquine study retraction shows the problems of speedy science | The Verge
  • 06/04/2020 - Researchers retract study that found big risks in using hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19 | Washington Post
  • 06/05/2020 - The biggest mystery: what it will take to trace the coronavirus source | Nature
  • 06/05/2020 - The pandemic mixed up what scientists study – and some won't go back | Nature
  • 06/05/2020 - The Lancet has made one of the biggest retractions in modern history. How could this happen? | The Guardian
  • 06/06/2020 - Police Tactics Could Turn Protests Into Covid-19 Hot Spots | Wired
  • 06/06/2020 - COVID-19 vaccine development pipeline gears up | The Lancet
  • 06/07/2020 - No benefit' from hydroxychloroquine for virus: UK trial | The Jakarta Post
See the coronavirus health information page for more information.

*Note: The information contained in this newsletter or website does not constitute medical advice. If you are having a medical emergency please contact your local healthcare provider or dial 911. If you are concerned about your health risks related to Coronavirus, please consult a medical professional.
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Recent US CDC updates to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Guidelines during the pandemic:

To see the full report or higher resolution images, please visit: 
http://ncov.iiress.com

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Bryan P. White
Background: http://bpwhite.iiress.com
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Founder, the Institute for Integrative Research in Earth and Space Science (IIRESS)
Editor, The Planetary News
Principal Investigator, IIRESS Labs
Chief Information Officer, The Planetary Information Engine
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