Planetary Information Engine Update - 5/25/2020
Hello, thanks for signing up for updates from the Planetary Information Engine. The Planetary Information Engine delivers actionable intelligence (information) to residents of the Earth to aid them in their daily lives. Currently we are devoting a large number of resources (AKA. my free time) to updating the Coronavirus Live Tracking site that I've established in response to the global, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The following figures and items have been updated recently:
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Site-wide Updates: - This week: Outbreak risk modeling continues
- A special letter on Memorial Day is included on this update (see below)
- News & Transmission History archives expanded
- Identifying research topics begins:
- A research framework for COVID-19 - How can we categorize the types of COVID-19 research currently underway?
- Case Reports - Reports from clinicians around the world
- Diagnostics - How can clinicians better diagnose individuals with COVID-19
- Forecasting - How can epidemiologists predict trends associated with COVID-19
- Genomics - Genetic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19
- Mechanism - How does the SARS-CoV-2 infect individuals and carry out its replication process
- Origin - How did the SARS-CoV-2 virus originate
- Prevention - How can we slow and prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2
- Transmission - How does the virus itself transmit between humans
- Treatment - How can we treat those infected with the virus
- **More analysis here soon**
- As social distancing guidelines continue to reduce across the nation and globally, please continue to avoid "superspreading events" (SSEs) where large numbers of individuals are infected by a single person (either asymptomatic or symptomatic). See the article below from the US CDC for more information on superspreading events and their impact on disease spread.
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- Please only contribute if you feel like you are financially secure for the next 2 years as some experts expect we may be feeling the social and economic impact of the pandemic for up to 2 years.
- These funds support the cost of the webserver, email list maintenance, and part of my salary as an MPH graduate student.
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A special message on Memorial Day. Oregon has been a leader in the United States and globally in its Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Response. Please see these words from the Governor of Oregon on advice for staying safe during Memorial Day (advice for national and state parks as well as outdoor activities will be similar across the nation):
Is it OK to take a family road trip, local in Oregon, this weekend?
Oregonians have done an incredible job flattening the COVID-19 curve by staying home to save lives. As the state gradually reopens, it's important we all keep it local this Memorial Day to prevent the spread of coronavirus and protect communities that have worked hard to enter the first stage of reopening. Visiting other parts of the state may unknowingly spread the disease, and risk overwhelming their hospital capacity.
As local Mayors across the state recently said: If you love the coast, stay home for now and plan your trip this summer. If you love the Columbia Gorge, keep it local this weekend and visit later on. If you love Central Oregon, it'll still be there in a few weeks.
Is it OK to host a small Memorial Day BBQ with close friends?
A small backyard barbeque with family and close friends is a great alternative to traveling this holiday weekend. Just remember: keep physical distancing of 6 feet or more between non- household members, be vigilant about washing your hands, and if grandparents are joining, it's safest for everyone to wear a face covering.
Smaller gatherings are the safest. In the Metro area (Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas Counties) social gatherings must be limited to 10 people or less. In other parts of the state that are now in Phase 1, slightly larger social gatherings of up to 25 people are allowed, and still require physical distancing. Remember: smaller is safer!
Is it OK for me to have a big birthday party for my kid?
Right now, no — but there are so many other fun ways to celebrate your kid's birthday. Have you been to a birthday "parade" yet? Ask your friends to decorate their cars and drive by the house to say hi to the birthday boy or girl from a distance — it's a special, safe way to celebrate.
Gatherings can become "super spreader" events, and with kids who may not understand physical distancing and want to play with each other, this can be extra dangerous. The best way to keep your children and their friends safe is to find alternate ways to connect instead of a large birthday party.
Is it OK for me to go to the Gorge and go hiking?
Any travel creates risk. As tempting as it may be to go hike in the Gorge this weekend, it's best to find a trail local to your home. Local community Mayors in the Gorge are requesting that the public stays in their local communities during Memorial Day weekend. The Gorge will always be there later this summer.
Is it OK for me to skip wearing a face mask if I'm outside?
When it comes to wearing face coverings, remember this: wearing a face covering is both kind and smart. It protects you and your family.
Wear a face covering to protect your neighbors. Wear a face covering to safeguard older Oregonians. Wear a face covering to defend kids who have compromised immune systems from illnesses such as childhood cancer. Wear a face covering to respect doctors, nurses, grocery workers, police and others who take a risk to serve you.
Is it OK to go camping at my favorite state park?
This weekend it's safest for you and your family to stay local. Any travel to campgrounds across the state creates risk, however local campgrounds are a great option (or even pitching a tent in your backyard!). If you do visit a nearby campground, make sure to practice responsible outdoor recreation and "pack in, pack out" — bring everything you need, including hand sanitizer. And make sure to check before you go to make sure the campground you plan to visit is open, as many are still closed.
- Oregon Health Authority (https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19)
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- 03/31/2020 - Can you put a price on COVID-19 options? Experts weigh lives versus economics | Science Magazine
- 04/30/2020 - Vitamin D and SARS-CoV-2 virus/COVID-19 disease | Nutrition BMJ
- 05/10/2020 - Coronavirus doctor's diary: The strange case of the choir that coughed in January | BBC
- 05/15/2020 - Critical levels of mask efficiency and of mask adoption that theoretically extinguish respiratory virus epidemics | MedRxiv
- 05/15/2020 - Cluster of Coronavirus Disease Associated with Fitness Dance Classes, South Korea | US CDC
- 05/15/2020 - COVID-19 economics — first book hits shelves | Nature
- 05/15/2020 - The sprint to solve coronavirus protein structures — and disarm them with drugs | Nature
- 05/17/2020 - A person who was Covid-19 positive attended a church service and exposed 180 people, officials say | CNN
- 05/17/2020 - HHS Secretary Alex Azar suggests health problems in communities of color explain coronavirus death numbers | Vox
- 05/18/2020 - Quantitative Method for Comparative Assessment of Particle Filtration Efficiency of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks for PPE | MedRxiv
- 05/18/2020 - Florida's Complete Phase 1 Reopening Happens As COVID-19 Cases Rise | NPR
- 05/18/2020 - China has been trying to avoid fallout from coronavirus. Now 100 countries are pushing for an investigation | CNN
- 05/18/2020 - The flu has killed 2,200 Michiganders since 2000. Coronavirus topped that in a month. | Michigan Live
- 05/18/2020 - COVID-19: UW study reports 'staggering' death rate in US among those infected who show symptoms | University of Washington
- 05/18/2020 - Criticism of the Oxford Coronavirus Vaccine | Science Magazine (Blogs)
- 05/18/2020 - Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2–Specific Antibodies Among Adults in Los Angeles County, California, on April 10-11, 2020 | JAMA
- 05/18/2020 - Exclusive: CDC plans sweeping COVID-19 antibody study in 25 metropolitan areas | Reuters
- 05/19/2020 - Coronavirus vaccine trials have delivered their first results — but their promise is still unclear | Nature
- 05/19/2020 - Moderna's coronavirus vaccine shows encouraging early results | Washington Post
- 05/19/2020 - Washing your hands is better than disposable gloves for preventing COVID-19 spread, Public Health says | CBC (Canada)
- 05/20/2020 - French patients were sick with Covid-19 in mid-November and before China - researchers | RFI (France)
- 05/20/2020 - How the coronavirus pandemic slashed carbon emissions — in five graphs | Nature
- 05/21/2020 - How coronavirus lockdowns stopped flu in its tracks | Nature
- 05/21/2020 - Almost 36,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths could have been avoided if social distancing began a week earlier, study finds | CBS News
- 05/22/2020 - Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis | The Lancet
- 05/22/2020 - Oxford COVID-19 vaccine to begin phase II/III human trials | University of Oxford
- 05/22/2020 - COVID-19 vaccine trials: Massive testing planned in U.S. to meet year-end goals | NCB News
- 05/22/2020 - Remdesivir alone is not enough, researchers conclude in first major Covid-19 trial of the drug | CNN
- 05/22/2020 - Nearly 40 employees at Vancouver food processor test positive for COVID-19Trending | Columbian
- 05/22/2020 - Placentas from COVID-19-positive pregnant women show injury | Northwestern
- 05/23/2020 - Results from the remdesivir COVID-19 trial are out, and it's good news | Ars Technica
- 05/23/2020 - Covid-19 Patients Not Infectious After 11 Days: Singapore Study | Bloomberg
- 05/24/2020 - US critics of stay-at-home orders tied to fossil fuel funding | The Guardian
- 05/24/2020 - More than 100 COVID-19 cases in Germany traced back to Frankfurt church services | The Hill
COVID-19 Special Report (Outbreak Risk Modeling) Outbreak risk modeling - 5/24/2020 Each quadrant represents a disease risk category. Quadrant 1 means a decreasing social distancing index, but increasing infection rate, which is an indication of high risk for disease resurgence. Quadrant 2 means increasing social distancing index and increasing infection rate, meaning local public health agencies and the local population have already responded to increased transmission by initiating higher social distancing protocols but transmission rates have not yet lowered. Quadrant 3 represents decreasing social distancing index and decreasing infection rates, meaning the majority of these states have likely met the requirements for reopening, and are actively increasing social/physical outdoor activity. Quadrant 4 means increased social distancing, decreasing infection rate, which likely indicates that the region has already recently responded to a resurgence and is currently in a reduced transmission state due to increased social distancing. These metrics are meant as a guideline to gauge risk within the state, but should not be used as final decision factors in any type of public health intervention. In other words, these are "FYI" and might be useful indicators of risk in those regions, but not a fully fledged predictive model. Quadrant 1 - High Risk for Disease Resurgence, Increasing Risk (Moderate → High) Alabama, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia Quadrant 2 - Current Resurgence, Social distancing response, Decreasing Risk (High → Moderate) Arkansas Quadrant 3 - Decreasing Risk, Reduced Distancing (Moderate → Low) Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming Quadrant 4 - Decreasing Risk, Active Containment (Moderate → Low) Idaho, Illinois, Oregon, Washington
Graph Source: Coronavirus metrics and statistics - https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
Quadrant graph for 05/24/2020 outbreak risk modeling data
For a full explanation of the methodology see the technical report here:
05/18/2020 - IIRESS Labs Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Technical Report 2: Assessing Social Distancing Effectiveness as a Public Health Intervention in the US
See the coronavirus health information page for more information. *Note: The information contained in this newsletter or website does not constitute medical advice. If you are having a medical emergency please contact your local healthcare provider or dial 911. If you are concerned about your health risks related to Coronavirus, please consult a medical professional. |
