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[Planetary Information Engine] Coronavirus (COVID-19) Live Tracker Update 6/8/2020

View this email in your browser Planetary Information Engine Update - 6/8/2020 Hello, thanks for signing up for updates from the Planetary Information Engine. The Planetary Information Engine delivers actionable intelligence (information) to residents of the Earth to aid them in their daily lives. Currently we are devoting a large number of resources to updating the Coronavirus Live Tracking site that I've established in response to the global, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The following figures and items have been updated recently: Site-wide Updates: This week research progress: News archives expanded Current research focus: Understanding the innate vs. adaptive immune system and their response to COVID-19 This letter special notes: Re-iteration of mask wearing as a way to reduce COVID-19 transmission Retraction of a major hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) study by The Lancet to faulty data Most studies sill suggest HCQ is not an effective prophylactic or treatment for COVID-19 The "Grim" Newsletter US coronavirus death toll surpasses 110,000 Visualizations of global and US coronavirus death statistics update Update on Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) rate estimates Estimates of Mortality Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to the viruses that cause SARS and MERS, which have both caused severe outbreaks of respiratory disease. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 in the US seems relatively stable at 5.7%, Italy/Spain/France/UK at 10-15%. Case fatality rate is the proportion of attributable number of deaths from a disease to reported (clinical) cases. Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 in the US is estimated to be between 0.5% and 1.0% globally (Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020 - Pre-Print). Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of attributable number of deaths to all those infected (includes sub-clinical and asymptomatic cases) and is expected to be lower than CFR. This number can be estimated during an epidemic/pandemic from antibody (by determining seroprevalence) studies. SARS-CoV-2 has a very high asymptomatic rate that makes it difficult to estimate this number, meaning that estimates will vary widely between region and testing methodology. Seroprevalence is the prevalence of individuals with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a population, meaning the percent of individuals that have or have recently had the disease, regardless of disease status (asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or full-clinical presentation). Current seroprevalence estimates range from 1.5% up to 30%, varying from region and testing methodology (Levesque and Maybury, 2020), meaning that a greater portion of any given population is infected with SARS-CoV-2 than will be identified from routine testing. Widespread seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US. Mortality rate is the attributable rate of deaths due to a disease in a population (e.g., out of 100,000 people what is the risk of death for a particular disease). This number is not typically estimated until after an epidemic/pandemic. Mortality rate of COVID-19 is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US. Estimates of COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) - Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020) - Click image for full resolution Global Case Fatality Rates (CFR) as of 06/07/2020 (Source: Johns Hopkins)   Country Infections Deaths CFR 95% Confidence Interval USA 1,942,363 110,514 5.69% (5.66 - 5.72%) Brazil 691,758 36,455 5.27% (5.22 - 5.32%) Russia 467,073 5,851 1.25% (1.22 - 1.28%) UK 287,621 40,625 14.12% (14.00 - 14.25%) India 257,486 7,207 2.80% (2.74 - 2.86%) Spain 241,550 27,136 11.23% (11.11 - 11.36%) Italy 234,998 33,899 14.43% (14.28 - 14.57%) Peru 196,515 5,465 2.78% (2.71 - 2.85%) France 191,102 29,158 15.26% (15.10 - 15.42%) Germany 185,750 8,685 4.68% (4.58 - 4.77%) Iran 171,789 8,281 4.82% (4.72 - 4.92%) Turkey 170,132 4,692 2.76% (2.68 - 2.84%) China 84,191 4,638 5.51% (5.35 - 5.66%) South Korea 11,814 273 2.31% (2.04 - 2.58%) Australia 7,265 102 1.4% (1.13 - 1.67%) Global 7,009,065 402,730 5.75% (5.73 - 5.76%) Global daily deaths from COVID-19 - red = peak, green = reducing (OurWorldInData.org) - Click image for full resolution US Excess Deaths due to all causes as of May 23, 2020 - US CDC (2017-2020) - Click image for full resolution US Excess Deaths due to COVID-19 as of May 9, 2020 - Washington Post - Click image for full resolution Rt Covid-19 for US States - If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading 06/07/2020. (rt.live) - Click image for full resolution   COVID-19 Epidemiology & Transmission Information - History of Discovery This section has been vastly revamped and expanded. It will now include archives going back to December/January 2019, February, and then going on forward through time. The archives can be accessed as follows: Pre-COVID-19:SARS-CoV-1 | Dec. 2019/Jan. 2020 Archives | February 2020 Archives | March 2020 Archives | April 2020 Archives | May 2020 Archives *Note: Archives are currently a work in progress as new articles are cataloged and compiled. Recent headlines in March are below (to read the full list and for links click here): 05/29/2020 - Evidence for Limited Early Spread of COVID-19 Within the United States, January–February 2020 | US CDC 05/29/2020 - Coronavirus in charts: the fact-checkers correcting falsehoods | Nature 05/30/2020 - U.S. cities fear protests may fuel new wave of virus outbreaks | CP24 06/01/2020 - Hesitancy to resume activities marks reopening challenges: POLL | ABC News 06/03/2020 - A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 | NEJM 06/03/2020 - Protester who took part in downtown Columbus demonstrations tests positive for COVID-19 | NBC 06/03/2020 - Hydroxychloroquine does not prevent Covid-19 infection if exposed, study says | STAT News 06/04/2020 - Social bubbles may be the best way for societies to emerge from lockdown | MIT Tech Review 06/04/2020 - Hydroxychloroquine study retraction shows the problems of speedy science | The Verge 06/04/2020 - Researchers retract study that found big risks in using hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19 | Washington Post 06/05/2020 - The biggest mystery: what it will take to trace the coronavirus source | Nature 06/05/2020 - The pandemic mixed up what scientists study – and some won't go back | Nature 06/05/2020 - The Lancet has made one of the biggest retractions in modern history. How could this happen? | The Guardian 06/06/2020 - Police Tactics Could Turn Protests Into Covid-19 Hot Spots | Wired 06/06/2020 - COVID-19 vaccine development pipeline gears up | The Lancet 06/07/2020 - No benefit' from hydroxychloroquine for virus: UK trial | The Jakarta Post Coronavirus (COVID-19) Health Information Health Risks Associated with COVID-19 Who is most at risk? Signs and Symptoms What can you do? Non-clinical Mask Usage Sexual Health During the Pandemic See the coronavirus health information page for more information. *Note: The information contained in this newsletter or website does not constitute medical advice. If you are having a medical emergency please contact your local healthcare provider or dial 911. If you are concerned about your health risks related to Coronavirus, please consult a medical professional. Full COVID-19 Technical Reports (PDF) 05/18/2020 - IIRESS Labs Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Technical Report 2: Assessing Social Distancing Effectiveness as a Public Health Intervention in the US 04/11/2020 - IIRESS Labs Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Technical Report 1: Global Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 Fundraising: Thanks everyone who has contributed thus far. $477 is a good start which is about 20% of my $2,400 goal. Please only contribute if you feel like you are financially secure for the next 2 years as some experts expect we may be feeling the social and economic impact of the pandemic for up to 2 years. Support the site & newsletter here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/1xiuhwyj9c Recent US CDC updates to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Guidelines during the pandemic: CDC Forecasting of COVID-19 Death Toll Signs and Symptoms Testing Guidelines Preventing Getting Sick Daily Life and Coping Use of Cloth Face Coverings to Help Slow the Spread of COVID-19 To see the full report or higher resolution images, please visit:  http://ncov.iiress.com Help improve the Engine: Take the survey here and provide valuable feedback on the newsletter and website. Please feel free to invite friends and family to subscribe. If this message has been sent to you by mistake, please unsubscribe here. Thanks for following along, Bryan P. White Background: http://bpwhite.iiress.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/bpwhite_bio E-mail: planetary.info.engine@gmail.com Secure E-mail: bpwhite.biology@protonmail.com Founder, the Institute for Integrative Research in Earth and Space Science (IIRESS) Editor, The Planetary News Principal Investigator, IIRESS Labs Chief Information Officer, The Planetary Information Engine Subscribe Forward Copyright © The Planetary News, All rights reserved. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.