What Apple has done is give the industry a great gift by fracturing the market and EOL'ing a product that was gaining market share. At this point, I have yet to run into a facility owner or upper end editor (commercials, films, etc.) who is willing to use FCP X beyond some experimental, simple editing. I just did a paid gig with it (unsupervised) and forgetting even the editing paradigm issues, the performance simply isn't there yet.
This is a great opportunity for Avid, but also for Adobe. For the FCP folks, Premiere Pro is the natural progression and all of their recent moves point to a commitment to the pro user. I know that many here don't consider Premiere Pro as worthy, but I'd bet that there are some behind-the-scenes efforts by Adobe to attract interest by a number of key, visible users. So, although MC6 is a great step forward, don't assume that Adobe is just sitting around.
In the discussions I've had with folks who've gone from Avid in the past to FCP in recent years, many are more willing to try Adobe next, rather than go back to Avid. Sometimes this is based on old perceptions, but I hear it over and over. Remember, that a lot of editors and facilities already own Premiere Pro by virtue of having bought one of the software bundles. It's really just a matter of firing up that app, which has been sitting there untouched until now.
Just figure that the next few years are going to be quite bumpy.
- Oliver
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