On Jul 9, 2011, at 7:25 AM, Steve Hullfish wrote:
> I always thought Terry's supposition that Avid would become a server company was just a provocation. I certainly don't believe that was going to happen or will happen - especially now that FCP has bowed out of the professional ranks of NLEs.
>
> The truth is that supposition is about all you CAN have unless you have a job as both Avid's AND Apple's CFO. I'm pretty sure those are two different people.
>
> Conjecture based on some common sense and some recent history is your stock in trade, Philip. I don't say that in a negative way, either. I'm just pointing out that you have SO few facts to base what you blog about most of the time, like with your predictions of FCP X a year out.
Sure and I updated that as new information came to light, and worked out what it meant had changed inside Apple. New data points.
> It's all been unsubstantiated assertions and guesses.
Actually, I'd say detailed scouring of public data points that no-one else bothers bringing together, very good inference and pretty well substantiated hypthotheses. In a world where "50% accuracy" is considered way above average for a "blogger", mine's currently running around 83%. If you want to continue to think it's all unsubstantiated assertions and guesses you're welcome to.
> But people are interested in hearing about your educated guesses in lieu of real knowledge that's non-existent. Hard facts about Avid's financials are hard to come by, because it's ILLEGAL for their employees to comment on that kind of stuff, even if they wanted to. They have to stick to the filing information on various reports. Those reports are designed by lawyers for investors, not for figuring out the direction of the company.
I believe it would be illegal for employees to comment on non-public financial details. I cannot see a requirement that no-one can discuss public records as long as they don't claim any additional knowledge or insight than what's public.
You would be surprised how much useful information about the directions of both Avid and Apple I've discerned from the 10K filings over the years. Even back to Media 100 where it was the one place where the Pegasus/844X showed up in the company's records. Not by name but by suddenly increased R&D costs. Apple's 10K filing also told what had been paid for various of their "pro app related" purchases 8 or 9 years back, and whether they'd purchased "assets" or the company.
10-K and other financial filings are very useful places to mine data points. Data points alone are nearly useless, but you get enough of them, and have a reasonable mind to interpret them, then "educated guesses" become highly accurate. Not perfect as my evolving understanding of Apple's intentions, but still better than any other source has been, by a pretty serious margin.
Philip
Philip Hodgetts
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