> If Media Composer 5 can offer support for AJA and Blackmagic hardware before
> Apple ships their new 'awesome' FCP then I think we'll see a lot of FCP
> suits suddenly turning into Avids
Well, maybe. Those owners who still remember the days of $100K+ edit systems realize that it's dirt-cheap to own all 3 software suites (Avid, Adobe, Apple) and then some. Best to have plenty of options. Many who've turned to FCP, have also invested in AJA and/or BMD cards. They might be interested in adding MC Soft to an FCP/AJA workstation, but they certainly won't buy MC+MojoDX/NitrisDX. So this would be a good development as it means that folks who have interest in adding MC Soft will do so.
Clearly the balancing act for Avid is how many Mojo/Nitris DX sales will they lose as a result? Avid has always overstated the performance of its hardware and inflated the price accordingly, because it was the only game in town if you wanted to play in the Avid sandbox. Think back - excluding the DNxcel HD card - the Adrenaline BOB did what the AJA Io did, but at 10x the price. AJA Io + a Kona covered both bases at less money.
Today, other than raster-scaling, Mojo DX provides no real effects acceleration. Nitris DX only adds the embedded DNxHD codec (plus more i/o spigots). There's some tweaking in the effects pipelines, but you can get just as much real-time on an MC Soft system without hardware as you can with the DX hardware attached. Hardware effects acceleration went out with the Nitris Classic boards and that's unlikely to come back. There's not enough ROI for that R&D.
I think you'll eventually see all Avid i/o and control surface hardware de-emphasized, with the possible exception of some high-end options. Think about it. Once the Euphonix investment goes into full swing and you add to this what's happening on the M-Audio side, does anyone really think Avid will continue to make the mid-range ProTools surfaces like Command 8? I doubt it. They'll focus on ICON, because they still bring value at that level. I think the same model will be implemented on the video side.
As far as the next "awesome" version of FCP, I would caution not to put too much stock in those rumors or arguments. As someone who spends the majority of my sessions in FCP-land, I can attest that it gets the job done. Yes, a lot of folks grumble about FCP's apparent "lack of development", but that's really just their version of "the grass is greener". I think MC5 will get a lot of loyal Avid editors to stay in the fold or possibly return, but I doubt it will dramatically change the NLE market share distribution. For the non-aligned, new, young editors, Adobe CS5 has far more interest and buzz than MC5.
If Apple releases an even "average" update by the end of the year, we all know it will be hailed as if it were the "second coming". So let's not kid ourselves about the impact on the market. In the end, Avid embracing more openness is a good thing that benefits Avid editors in important ways. It keeps then in the game, but it won't change the game.
- Oliver
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