Planetary Information Engine Update - 6/1/2020
Hello, thanks for signing up for updates from the Planetary Information Engine. The Planetary Information Engine delivers actionable intelligence (information) to residents of the Earth to aid them in their daily lives. Currently we are devoting a large number of resources to updating the Coronavirus Live Tracking site that I've established in response to the global, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The following figures and items have been updated recently:
Site-wide Updates: - This week research progress:
- The US has entered a "plateau" phase of viral transmission, meaning overall transmission rates are holding steady, rather than seeing major spikes or a decline overall.
- The death rate and hospitalization rates in the US has shown some steady decline, contrary to transmission rates.
- Stable transmission rates but decreased hospitalization rates could mean the virus has propagated through the most vulnerable populations and slowly getting into less vulnerable populations in terms of health risks of the virus, but more risk in terms of disease transmission (e.g., high rate of socialization).
- Outbreak risk modeling continues - new high risk states predicted.
- News & Transmission History archives expanded.
- Pre-COVID-19:SARS-CoV-1 - how did the first SARS epidemic unfold in 2002-2003? A new part of the transmission history archives will soon be featured.
- Vaccine status: 10 vaccines in clinical trials globally, 121 vaccines in preclinical evaluation stage.
- This letter special notes:
- Advice on mask wearing and safe practices for business opening
- Visualizing the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.
Mask wearing and safe practices for businesses
As the spread of COVID-19 slows to a plateau in America, we will all be faced with the continued presence of this virus in our daily lives, and therefore should take precautions when venturing outside either to work, dine, or socialize. Here are some graphics that might be of use to those concerned or curious about how wearing a mask decreases the transmission probability of the virus, and highlights some safe practices as businesses re-open.
Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Science Magazine
Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 μm) and aerosols (≤5 μm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (1–3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs. For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals.
Read the full article here: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197
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Recommendations from Oregon Health Authority (OHA) for Mask Wearing and Safe Practices During Reopening
Oregon continues to be a leader in coronavirus response and its state-level health department has produced some excellent graphics that make it easy to understand the key points to reducing transmission of the virus outside. This is not a comprehensive list of health requirements (see your own local health authority for comprehensive lists), but general guidelines regarding masks.
Key points to remember: - A face covering protects everyone around you.
- The virus spreads in droplets from coughs, sneezes or talking.
- Face coverings keep droplets out of the air and make it harder for the virus to spread.
Every state and country has its own recommendations for safe reopening, so please defer to your local health authority in the case of any type of conflict.
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Visualizing the Novel Coronavirus
The president of the United States, Donald J. Trump, has frequently referred to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as "the invisible enemy", but the virus itself is hardly invisible. We know from molecular genetic data the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is closely related to the same coronavirus that caused the SARS epidemics of 2002 and 2003. Like all coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 has earned its namesake for the marked "corona"-like (as in, the Sun's corona) appearance under scanning electron microscopy. But what does that mean? What does it really look like? Here are some images below for those that might be curious.
Image credit: US CDC
Image credit: US CDC
Image credit: Falconieri Visuals, https://falconierivisuals.com/?p=916M
To read more about the visualization of SARS-CoV-2, see this article: https://www.theparisreview.org/blog/2020/05/18/how-to-draw-the-coronavirus/
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- 05/13/2020 - The secret to why some people get so sick from covid could lie in their genes | MIT Technology Review
- 05/18/2020 - How to Draw the Coronavirus | The Paris Review
- 05/20/2020 - Large Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease among Wedding Attendees, Jordan | US CDC
- 05/22/2020 - Scientists baffled by decision to stop a pioneering coronavirus testing project | Nature
- 05/22/2020 - Putting the Risk of Covid-19 in Perspective | NY Times
- 05/22/2020 - 'Medications should be prescribed by doctors, not the president': leading Brazilian scientist discusses the pandemic | Nature
- 05/23/2020 - The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US | BioRxiv
- 05/25/2020 - CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat | The Guardian
- 05/25/2020 - Coronavirus: WHO halts trials of hydroxychloroquine over safety fears | BBC
- 05/26/2020 - Coronavirus doctor's diary: The drug combination that may help us beat Covid-19 | BBC
- 05/26/2020 - Fears of coronavirus second wave prompt flu push at U.S. pharmacies, drugmakers | Reuters
- 05/26/2020 - Scientific networks are helping African countries to access coronavirus lab supplies | Nature
- 05/26/2020 - New research rewrites history of when Covid-19 took off in the U.S. — and points to missed chances to stop it | STAT News
- 05/27/2020 - The CDC Released New Death Rate Estimates For The Coronavirus. Many Scientists Say They're Too Low. | BuzzFeed
- 05/27/2020 - Fauci says he wears a mask to be a symbol of what 'you should be doing' | CNN
- 05/27/2020 - The epic battle against coronavirus misinformation and conspiracy theories | Nature
- 05/27/2020 - Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 | Science Magazine
- 05/27/2020 - Two weeks after court scraps Safer at Home, Wisconsin sets record for new coronavirus cases and deaths | Madison 365 (Wisconsin)
- 05/27/2020 - How countries are using genomics to help avoid a second coronavirus wave | Nature
- 05/27/2020 - What a US exit from the WHO means for COVID-19 and global health | Nature
- 05/27/2020 - Coronavirus conversations: Science communication during a pandemic | Nature
- 05/28/2020 - As states start to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic, POLITICO polled Americans to find out which activities they find risky — and asked experts, too. | Politico
- 05/28/2020 - Researchers Applaud Spanish COVID-19 Serological Survey | The-Scientist
- 05/29/2020 - Hundreds of South Korea schools close again after reopening | CNN
- 05/29/2020 - Introductions and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the New York City area | Science Magazine
- 05/29/2020 - Trump announces US to sever all ties with WHO | The Guardian
- 05/29/2020 - Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 through recombination and strong purifying selection | Science Magazine
- 05/29/2020 - Partygoer at Lake of the Ozarks pool party tests positive for COVID-19, potentially exposing hundreds | Fox 4KC
COVID-19 Special Report (Outbreak Risk Modeling) Outbreak risk modeling - 6/1/2020 Each quadrant represents a disease risk category. Quadrant 1 means a decreasing social distancing index, but increasing infection rate, which is an indication of high risk for disease resurgence. Quadrant 2 means increasing social distancing index and increasing infection rate, meaning local public health agencies and the local population have already responded to increased transmission by initiating higher social distancing protocols but transmission rates have not yet lowered. Quadrant 3 represents decreasing social distancing index and decreasing infection rates, meaning the majority of these states have likely met the requirements for reopening, and are actively increasing social/physical outdoor activity. Quadrant 4 means increased social distancing, decreasing infection rate, which likely indicates that the region has already recently responded to a resurgence and is currently in a reduced transmission state due to increased social distancing.
Most states are currently either in Quadrant 1 (risk of potential resurgence) or Quadrant 3 (resurgence not currently expected). That being said, its important to remember that the US is currently in a plateau phase, meaning the average number of new daily infections is holding steady at around 20,000 confirmed cases per day. For high risk states (Quadrant 1), they are sorted by % change in cases for the week of 5/24 through 5/31. Keep in mind that just because there is not a projected increase in resurgence based on this data, does not mean that there might still be a resurgence in low-risk states. That being said, high risk states would be expected to encounter a resurgence during the next week to some degree.
These metrics are meant as a guideline to gauge risk within the state, but should not be used as final decision factors in any type of public health intervention. In other words, these are "FYI" and might be useful indicators of risk in those regions, but not a fully fledged predictive model. Quadrant 1 - High Risk for Disease Resurgence, Increasing Risk (Moderate → High) | | Growth (5/24-5/31 2020) | | | State | 5/24/2020 | 5/31/2020 | % Increase | | Alabama | 14473 | 17952 | 24.0 | | Virginia | 36244 | 44607 | 23.1 | | Alaska | 408 | 460 | 12.7 | | Missouri | 12130 | 13438 | 10.8 | | Washington | 20430 | 22322 | 9.3 | | Wyoming | 837 | 903 | 7.9 | | Montana | 479 | 515 | 7.5 | | Vermont | 956 | 981 | 2.6 | | Hawaii | 643 | 652 | 1.4 | Quadrant 2 - Current Resurgence, Social distancing response, Decreasing Risk (High → Moderate) NA Quadrant 3 - Decreasing Risk, Reduced Distancing (Moderate → Low) Arizona Illinois Minnesota Ohio West Virginia
Arkansas Indiana Mississippi Oklahoma Wisconsin
California Iowa Nebraska Oregon
Colorado Kansas Nevada Pennsylvania
Connecticut Kentucky New Hampshire Rhode Island
Delaware Louisiana New Jersey South Carolina
District of Columbia Maine New Mexico South Dakota
Florida Maryland New York Tennessee
Georgia Massachusetts North Carolina Texas
Idaho Michigan North Dakota Utah Quadrant 4 - Decreasing Risk, Active Containment (Moderate → Low) NA
Overall US confirmed cases and 3 high risk states (Alabama, Virginia, Alaska)
Graph Source: Coronavirus metrics and statistics - https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
For a full explanation of the methodology see the technical report here: 05/18/2020 - IIRESS Labs Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Technical Report 2: Assessing Social Distancing Effectiveness as a Public Health Intervention in the US
See the coronavirus health information page for more information. *Note: The information contained in this newsletter or website does not constitute medical advice. If you are having a medical emergency please contact your local healthcare provider or dial 911. If you are concerned about your health risks related to Coronavirus, please consult a medical professional. Fundraising: - Thanks everyone who has contributed thus far. $467 is a good start which is about 19.5% of my $2,400 goal.
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Recent US CDC updates to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Guidelines during the pandemic: To see the full report or higher resolution images, please visit: http://ncov.iiress.com Help improve the Engine: Take the survey here and provide valuable feedback on the newsletter and website. Please feel free to invite friends and family to subscribe. If this message has been sent to you by mistake, please unsubscribe here. Thanks for following along, Bryan P. White Background: http://bpwhite.iiress.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/bpwhite_bio E-mail: planetary.info.engine@gmail.com Secure E-mail: bpwhite.biology@protonmail.com Founder, the Institute for Integrative Research in Earth and Space Science (IIRESS) Editor, The Planetary News Principal Investigator, IIRESS Labs Chief Information Officer, The Planetary Information Engine |
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