Although it's fun to discuss the possibilities, we all know that if the next FCP is "re-imagined", but not actually "dumbed down" - AND offers more power and more stability - then there isn't going to be any mass exodus away from the application by its current users.
I know my clients will continue to use either the current or the newer form of FCP. In fact, it will likely gain users. Those may not include what I've been calling "traditional pros", but there are lots of new folks moving into video production every day. Then there's cost. As Bob Z says, cheap will win every day.
- Oliver
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