Yeah, no, these are all the exact problems the majors are squirming over right now. The studios are in adapt-or-die mode right now and no one, no executive, no analyst, no soothsayer with chicken bones and tea leaves knows what's going to happen and how it's all going to eventually shake out.
I don't know that it's accurate to ask whether or not kids would pay to go see "Lawrence of Arabia" now. Right now, the 'Lord of the Rings' trilogy and the Harry Potter movies and the Twilight series -- these ARE their Lawrence of Arabias. And these movies are no less demanding in time and effort than was 'Lawrence'. Heck, some are MORE demanding. So I'm not sure about this argument. When has the emergent generation ever been anything OTHER than a completely indecipherable mystery to the Establishment?
In my particular niche (theatrically-released feature films) there are only three reliable ways to get a film made and seen. 1. Be one of the few big players like a Bruckheimer or a Rudin and make tent poles based on movies with preexisting brand name identity or undeniable franchise potential. 2. Bring the studio a package that basically eliminates all exposure for them. Like a domestic project financed with foreign money that needs only a modest theatrical return and nominally-performing ancillary revenue. And finally 3. Do something self-financed or micro-financed and hope for a miracle (see following paragraph). And that's it.
As for going viral, well you can't really write a business plan based on that, can you? "Snakes On a Plane" sucked and was only barely profitable. And "Paranormal Activity" is a lightning strike. For every success like 'Paranormal' there are AT LEAST 1000 wannabees so craptacular that no one wants to have anything to do with them. So again, not much of a model for a business there.
Right now -- and again, RIGHT NOW is all we have -- but right now the majors are learning that they can't just export their domestic product internationally -- but that they have to be a part of creating region-specific product everywhere. The release of Disney's "Kniga Masterov" in Russia right now is a perfect example.
But it's a weird, weird world out there in media right now. Very weird. And we're all going to have to stay very light on our feet if we want to continue working in this industry.
D
David Dodson
davidadodson@sbcglobal.net
818-541-1225
818-523-0905 mobile
________________________________
From: Terence Curren <tcurren@aol.com>
To: Avid-L2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sat, November 14, 2009 3:34:15 PM
Subject: [Avid-L2] Re: Smoke on Mac update
--- In Avid-L2@yahoogroups .com, David Dodson <davidadodson@ ...> wrote:
<<But color me naive, human beings are at their core story telling and story receiving vessels.>>
I'm not arguing that at all. I'm just saying I don't see how the studios are going to be able to support their massive overhead in the new world. Most folks are willing to settle for "good enough" now. How many kids now would pay to go see Lawrence of Arabia? Not a chance, too slow, give it to me faster... you know, like in a 5 minute YouTube clip....
And how does a studio deal with that? They have had a controlled pipeline for almost the entire history of cinema. Even after the government made them divest the theaters, they maintained control by telling the theaters they had to take their bad movies with the good ones.
If you are an independent distributor, that is a tough enough nut to crack, not to mention the prohibitive cost of release prints, advertising, and trailer placement.
Well, today you can place your trailer up for free on your site. Throw it onto YouTube for increased exposure. Go viral like Snake on a Plane, or Paranormal Activity. And as soon as the theaters are all digital, a concept the studios have self destructively been pushing for years, the cost of distribution becomes a hard drive.
I don't think things are ever going back to where they were in the past. Not even to where they were two years ago. All the folks who have been cutting their rates to"get through" this recession, are not going to be able to raise them whenever this ends. To do that they would have to increase demand beyond supply, and I don't see that happening.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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