Planetary Information Engine Update - 5/11/2020
Hello, thanks for signing up for updates from the Planetary Information Engine. The Planetary Information Engine delivers actionable intelligence (information) to residents of the Earth to aid them in their daily lives. Currently we are devoting a large number of resources (AKA. my free time) to updating the Coronavirus Live Tracking site that I've established in response to the global, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The following figures and items have been updated recently:
If this message has been sent to you by mistake, please unsubscribe here.
Site-wide Updates: - Facts of the Month (May 2020) - These are important science facts you should know:
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2
- SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to the viruses that cause SARS and MERS, which have both caused severe outbreaks of respiratory disease.
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 in the US seems relatively stable at 6.0%, Italy/Spain/France/UK at 10-15%.
- Case fatality rate is the proportion of attributable number of deaths from a disease to reported (clinical) cases.
- Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19 in the US is still currently unknown with scientific certainty.
- Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of attributable number of deaths to all those infected (includes sub-clinical and asymptomatic cases) and is expected to be lower than CFR.
- This number can be estimated during an epidemic/pandemic from antibody (by determining seroprevalence) studies.
- SARS-CoV-2 has a very high asymptomatic rate that makes it difficult to estimate this number, meaning that estimates will vary widely between region and testing methodology.
- Seroprevalence is the prevalence of individuals with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a population, meaning the percent of individuals that have or have recently had the disease, regardless of disease status (asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or full-clinical presentation).
- Current seroprevalence estimates range from 1.5% up to 30%, varying from region and testing methodology (Levesque and Maybury, 2020), meaning that a greater portion of any given population is infected with SARS-CoV-2 than will be identified from routine testing.
- Widespread seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US.
- Mortality rate is the attributable rate of deaths due to a disease in a population (e.g., out of 100,000 people what is the risk of death for a particular disease).
- This number is not typically estimated until after an epidemic/pandemic.
- Mortality rate of COVID-19 is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US.
- Transmission History & Discovery archives continue to grow: 710 events & articles as of today.
- Stay-At-Home Orders and Social Distancing Work: Preliminary data suggests states that have used Stay-At-Home orders or other types of social-distancing restrictions are seeing significant declines in new infections compared to early-open states or states that did not implement Stay-At-Home orders. Data in progress: COVID-19 Special Report
- Timeline Revisions:
- First case identified in France in Dec. 27th, 2019 - pushing the timeline for international spread of the novel coronavirus much earlier than previously thought.
- Most US infections determined to be from European origin rather than directly from China, meaning that international spread had been occurring for enough time for community spread to occur in Europe before the virus was publicly identified in China.
- Molecular genetic data suggests the jump from wildlife (bat or pangolin) occurred as early as October, 2019, in the Wuhan province in China.
- Most experts believe there is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered or purposefully manipulated in any way.
 - Sharing is caring (don't share the coronavirus!), check out the new social media buttons on the site:
| Country | Infections | Deaths | CFR | 95% Confidence Interval | | USA | 1,329,799 | 79,528 | 5.98% | (5.94 - 6.02%) | | Spain | 224,350 | 26,621 | 11.87% | (11.73 - 12.00%) | | UK | 220,449 | 31,930 | 14.48% | (14.34 - 14.63%) | | Italy | 219,070 | 30,560 | 13.95% | (13.80 - 14.09%) | | Russia | 209,688 | 1,915 | 0.91% | (0.87 - 0.95%) | | France | 177,094 | 26,383 | 14.90% | (14.73 - 15.06%) | | Germany | 171,879 | 7,569 | 4.40% | (4.31 - 4.50%) | | China | 84,010 | 4,637 | 5.52% | (5.37 - 5.67%) | | South Korea | 10,909 | 256 | 2.35% | (2.06 - 2.63%) | | Australia | 6,948 | 97 | 1.4% | (1.12 - 1.67%) | | Global | 4,103,136 | 282,719 | 6.89% | (6.87 - 6.91%) | 5 Day average percent change in confirmed COVID-19 infections (5/10/2020)
Bottom 5 States - Lowest New Infection Rate: - Montana, 0.09% - stay-at-home issued March 26th, ended April 26th
- Hawaii, 0.26% - stay-at-home issued March 25th (ongoing)
- Vermont, 0.42% - stay-at-home issued March 24th (ongoing)
- Alaska, 0.48% - stay-at-home issued March 28th, ended April 24th
- New York, 0.86% - stay-at-home issued March 22nd (ongoing)
Middle 5 States - Medium New Infection Rate - Washington, 2.24% - stay-at-home issued March 23rd (ongoing)
- Rhode Island, 2.63% - stay-at-home issued March 28th, ended May 9th
- Oregon, 2.75% - stay-at-home issued March 23rd (ongoing)
- Utah, 2.76% - no stay-at-home order issued
- Colorado, 2.78% - stay-at-home issued March 26th, ended April 27th
Top 5 States - Highest New Infection Rate - Arizona, 4.21% - stay-at-home issued March 30th (ongoing)
- South Dakota, 4.97% - no stay-at-home order issued
- Kansas, 5.17% - stay-at-home issued March 30th, ended May 4th
- Nebraska, 6.11% - no stay-at-home order issued
- Minnesota, 8.33% - stay-at-home issued March 28th (ongoing)
Transmission History & Discovery Archive Status: - 05/08/2020 - Humoral immune response and prolonged PCR positivity in a cohort of 1343 SARS-CoV 2 patients in the New York City region | MedRxiv
- 05/08/2020 - Germany shuns Trump's claims Covid-19 outbreak was caused by Chinese lab leak | The Local (Germany) - English
- 05/08/2020 - Vice President Mike Pence's press secretary tests positive for coronavirus (Katie Miller) | CNBC
- 05/08/2020 - University of Hong Kong study finds eyes are 'important route' for coronavirus, up to 100 times more infectious than Sars | SCMP
- 05/08/2020 - Triple drug therapy helps coronavirus patients recover more quickly, study finds (lopinavir, ritonavir, ribavirin with beta interferon) | CNN
- 05/08/2020 - Triple combination of interferon beta-1b, lopinavir–ritonavir, and ribavirin in the treatment of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: an open-label, randomised, phase 2 trial | The Lancet
- 05/08/2020 - F.D.A. Clears First Home Saliva Test for Coronavirus | NY Times - FDA Link
- 05/08/2020 - US blocks vote on UN's bid for global ceasefire [during the coronavirus pandemic] over reference to WHO | The Guardian
- 05/09/2020 - Was the coronavirus made in a Wuhan lab? Here's what the genetic evidence shows | LA Times
- 05/09/2020 - Coronavirus: Researchers find New York was the 'gateway' for US infections | News.AU
- 05/09/2020 - New Zealand eliminates COVID-19 | The Lancet
- 05/09/2020 - The pandemic shows WHO lacks authority to force governments to divulge information, experts say | NBC
- 05/09/2020 - Was the coronavirus made in a Wuhan lab? Here's what the genetic evidence shows | LA Times
- 05/09/2020 - All Seoul bars ordered to shut after spike in coronavirus cases linked to nightclubs | CNN
- 05/09/2020 - CDC director self-quarantining after exposure to person at the White House who tested positive for Covid-19 | CNN
- 05/09/2020 - White House aides rattled after positive coronavirus tests and officials send mixed messages on how to respond | Washington Post
- 05/09/2020 - Study shows Covid-19 patients who took heartburn drug (famotidine) were less likely to die, but researchers caution more research is needed | CNN
- 05/09/2020 - More people think UK has handled coronavirus worse than Spain and Italy, poll shows (Opinion) | The Guardian
- 05/09/2020 - Fauci becomes third member of White House coronavirus task force to enter quarantine | NBC News
- 05/09/2020 - CDC director will self-quarantine after contact with COVID-19 positive case | The Hiller
- 05/09/2020 - FDA chief self-quarantines after coming in contact with individual who tested positive for coronavirus | CNN
- 05/10/2020 - Contagion within the White House would be catastrophic for US national security | CNN
- 05/10/2020 - 'Back to where we started' — New York coronavirus hospitalizations fall to March levels, Cuomo says | CNBC
- 05/10/2020 - Cuomo alerts states to mystery coronavirus illness after three children die | The Guardian
- 05/10/2020 - Trump coronavirus vaccine goal 'amazingly ambitious', Senate Republican says | The Guardian
- 05/10/2020 - Trump softens promise of coronavirus vaccine by end of year | Politico
- 05/10/2020 - 'Scary to Go to Work': White House Races to Contain Virus in Its Ranks | NY Times
- 05/10/2020 - Pence spends weekend at home after exposure to infected aide | Associated Press
- 05/10/2020 - The US was offered millions of masks in January. The Trump administration turned the offer down. | Vox
- 05/10/2020 - Doctors keep discovering new ways the coronavirus attacks the body | Washington Post
- 05/10/2020 - Pence will not self-quarantine and plans to be at the White House Monday | CNN
- 05/10/2020 - Scientists concerned that coronavirus is adapting to humans | The Guardian
- 05/10/2020 - Should We Worry That COVID-19 Coronavirus Is Sexually Transmitted? | Forbes
See the coronavirus health information page for more information. *Note: The information contained in this newsletter or website does not constitute medical advice. If you are having a medical emergency please contact your local healthcare provider or dial 911. If you are concerned about your health risks related to Coronavirus, please consult a medical professional. Clinical Pathology of COVID-19 Trace the history of the global medical field understanding the clinical pathology of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes COVID-19. COVID-19 Featured External Report, May 2020: Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at University of Minnesota - CIDRAP has been a great resource for me during the pandemic and I would consider it a very high-trust source.
- Recently, they have created a new section named "COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint", which is a summary report from experts in the field.
- Their first issue of the report, "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza" (Apr 30, 2020) contains some very pertinent estimates on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Researchers at CIDRAP estimate that the pandemic will continue for up to 18-24 months, and experience one of several potential disease curve patterns, pictured here below.
 - Recommendations from the report:
- 1. States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (Scenario 2), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
- 2. Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
- 3. Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
- 4. Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years.
- Read the full report here: "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza"
- Follow-up for more CIDRAP reports here: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-19-cidrap-viewpoint
Genetic Epidemiology of COVID-19 How does the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 travel around the world during the 2019/2020 pandemic? Visit this section to learn more about the genetics and genomics tools we can use to trace its spread. | |
No comments:
Post a Comment