Planetary Information Engine Update - 5/3/2020
Hello, thanks for signing up for updates from the Planetary Information Engine. The Planetary Information Engine delivers actionable intelligence (information) to residents of the Earth to aid them in their daily lives. Currently we are devoting a large number of resources (AKA. my free time) to updating the Coronavirus Live Tracking site that I've established in response to the global, novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The following figures and items have been updated recently:
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* = updated this letter
Site Updates
*Site-wide Updates: - GoFundMe Thanks everyone who contributed!! $397 is a good start which is about 16.5% of my $2,400 goal:
- As the US has exited its exponential growth phase, "Doubling Times Reports" have been permanently archived: COVID-19 Doubling Rate Reports
- Facts of the Month (April/May 2020) - These are important science facts you should know:
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the US seems relatively stable at 5.6%, Italy/Spain/France at 10-14%.
- Case fatality rate is the proportion of attributable number of deaths from a disease to reported (clinical) cases
- Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) (or mortality rate) in the US is still currently unknown with scientific certainty.
- Infection fatality rate (CFR) is the proportion of attributable number of deaths to all those infected (includes sub-clinical and asymptomatic cases) and is expected to be lower than CFR. This number can be estimated during an epidemic/pandemic from antibody studies.
- Mortality rate is the attributable rate of deaths due to a disease in a population (e.g., out of 100,000 people what is the risk of death for a particular disease). This number is not typically estimated until after an epidemic/pandemic.
- Transmission History & Discovery archives continue to grow: 612 events & articles as of today.
- New Featured Report section in the Newsletter (see below)
- Vaccines section expanded to include 9 clinical trials (see below)
- Stay-At-Home Orders Work: Preliminary data suggests states with Stay-At-Home orders are seeing significant declines in new infections compared to early-open states or states that did not implement Stay-At-Home orders (see below)
COVID-19 Special Report: Preliminary Data Suggests Stay-At-Home Orders Work (Original Analysis): - Using data provided from the New York times (https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data) I have conducted a simple statistical analysis on the rate of new infections (the % change in infections from day-to-day) for each state in the US.
- I've grouped these states according to their "Pact" status, re-opening status, and whether or not the state ever implemented an extended Stay-At-Home order (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html)
- The conclusions of this analysis are that states that underwent Stay-At-Home orders, and states that are still preserving those orders, are experiencing significantly less surges in new infections, excluding the Midwest states.
- Current surges in Midwest states are similar to states that have never implemented Stay-At-Home orders, most likely due to high population density and the late arrival of COVID-19 to those regions, meaning the Midwest is still experiencing an exponential phase of its epidemic (contrasted with the majority of other states in the US, where their exponential phases are ending.
- Current recommendations are to adhere to all State or Federal guidelines regarding Stay-At-Home orders and social-distancing policies.
 
*New section: COVID-19 Clinical Trials (Vaccine, Treatment, Testing, etc.) Vaccine Development - 04/09/2020 - The COVID-19 vaccine development landscape | Nature
- 04/30/2020 - Draft landscape of COVID 19 candidate vaccines | WHO
Vaccine Trials  USA- 02/25/2020 - Safety and Immunogenicity Study of 2019-nCoV Vaccine (mRNA-1273) for Prophylaxis SARS CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19) | ID: NCT04283461 | Compound: mRNA-1273 | Start: March 2020 End: June 2021
- 04/07/2020 - Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of INO-4800 for COVID-19 in Healthy Volunteers | ID: NCT04336410 | Compound: INO-4800 | Start: April 2020 End: April 2021
 China- 03/17/2020 - A phase I clinical trial for recombinant novel coronavirus (2019-COV) vaccine (adenoviral vector) | ID: ChiCTR2000030906 | Compound: Ad5-nCoV | Duration: 6 months - Drugbank
- 04/10/2020 - A randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled phase II clinical trial for Recombinant Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCOV) Vaccine (Adenovirus Vector) | ID: ChiCTR2000031781 | Compound: Ad5-nCoV | Duration: 6 months - Drugbank
- 04/11/2020 - A randomized, double-blind, placebo parallel-controlled phase I/II clinical trial for inactivated Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia vaccine (Vero cells) | ID: ChiCTR2000031809 | Compound: Inactivated virus | Duration: 6 months
- 04/20/2020 - Safety and Immunogenicity Study of Inactivated Vaccine for Prophylaxis of SARS CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19) | ID: NCT04352608 | Compound: Inactivated virus | Start: April 2020 End: December 2020
- TBA - Beijing Institute of Biological Products/Sinopharm - Inactivated virus
 Germany (European Union)- 04/14/2020 - First Clinical Trial of a COVID-19 Vaccine Authorised in Germany | German Federal Ministry of Health | ID: 2020-001038-36 | Compound: BNT162-01 | Duration: 12 months - Clinicaltrialsregister.eu
 UK- 03/27/2020 - A Study of a Candidate COVID-19 Vaccine (COV001) | ID: NCT04324606 | Compound: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, MenACWY | Start: April 2020 End: May 2021
Testing Methodology
Featured External Report, May 2020: Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at University of Minnesota - New Section: COVID-19 Featured External Report
- CIDRAP has been a great resource for me during the pandemic and I would consider it a very high-trust source.
- Recently, they have created a new section named "COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint", which is a summary report from experts in the field.
- Their first issue of the report, "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza" (Apr 30, 2020) contains some very pertinent estimates on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Researchers at CIDRAP estimate that the pandemic will continue for up to 18-24 months, and experience one of several potential disease curve patterns, pictured here below.
 - Recommendations from the report:
- 1. States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (Scenario 2), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
- 2. Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
- 3. Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
- 4. Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years.
- Read the full report here: "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza"
- Follow-up for more CIDRAP reports here: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-19-cidrap-viewpoint
*Transmission History & Discovery Archive Status: - 04/20/2020 - Editorial: low population mortality from COVID‐19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity | Wiley
- 04/27/2020 - What policy makers need to know about COVID-19 protective immunity | The Lancet
- 04/28/2020 - The race for coronavirus vaccines: a graphical guide | Nature
- 04/28/2020 - Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate by real-time antibody screening of blood donors (IFR) | MedRxiv
- 04/28/2020 - Pathological evidence for residual SARS-CoV-2 in pulmonary tissues of a ready-for-discharge patient | Nature
- 04/28/2020 - Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges (Opinion) | Scientific American Blogs
- 04/29/2020 - Coronavirus: Oxford vaccine effective in monkeys, heading for mass production in India | SCMP
- 04/29/2020 - Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19 | Gilead
- 04/29/2020 - Fauci: Second wave of coronavirus 'inevitable' | The Hill
- 04/29/2020 - Coronavirus testing chief says 'no way on Earth' US can test 5 million a day, despite what Trump says | CNBC
- 04/29/2020 - NIH Clinical Trial Shows Remdesivir Accelerates Recovery from Advanced COVID-19 | NIAID
- 04/29/2020 - 6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine | Yahoo
- 04/29/2020 - AstraZeneca and Oxford University announce landmark agreement for COVID-19 vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) | AstraZeneca
- 04/29/2020 - Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest during the Covid-19 Outbreak in Italy | NEJM
- 04/29/2020 - Italy, Covid19 has been around in Milan since January before the first confirmed case there were already at least 1200 undetected cases | Huffington Post (Italian)
- 04/29/2020 - Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact | USA Today
- 04/30/2020 - COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint (Part 1: "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza") | CIDRAP
- 04/30/2020 - Covid 19 – Epidemic 'Waves' | CEBM
- 04/30/2020 - Draft landscape of COVID 19 candidate vaccines | WHO
- 04/30/2020 - Evaluation of "stratify and shield" as a policy option for ending the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK | MedRxiv
- 04/30/2020 - Canada's early COVID-19 cases came from the U.S. not China, provincial data shows | National Post (Canada)
- 04/30/2020 - Editorial: Nicotine and SARS-CoV-2: COVID-19 may be a disease of the nicotinic cholinergic system | Science Direct
- 04/30/2020 - Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 | Biorxiv
- 04/30/2020 - Blood clotting a significant cause of death in patients with COVID-19 | Eurekalert
- 05/01/2020 - More than 4,000 US meatpacking workers have COVID-19 | CIDRAP
- 05/01/2020 - Fauci blocked from testifying about coronavirus response before House panel | Politico
- 05/01/2020 - Michigan governor extends state emergency order despite Trump tweet backing protesters | ABC News
- 05/02/2020 - Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Results of Completed Antibody Testing Study of 15,000 People Showing 12.3 Percent of Population Has COVID-19 Antibodies | NY Gov. Office
- 05/02/2020 - Trump Received Intelligence Briefings On Coronavirus Twice In January | NPR
- 05/02/2020 - New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity | CBS
See the coronavirus health information page for more information.
*Note: The information contained in this newsletter or website does not constitute medical advice. If you are having a medical emergency please contact your local healthcare provider or dial 911. If you are concerned about your health risks related to Coronavirus, please consult a medical professional.
Clinical Pathology of COVID-19 Trace the history of the global medical field understanding the clinical pathology of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes COVID-19. * COVID-19 Quick Stats New Quick Stats Dashboard including live updates of WHO and Johns Hopkins data:A table of current infections, deaths, and CFR as of 05/03/2020. | Country | Infections | Deaths | CFR | 95% Confidence Interval | | USA | 1,133,069 | 66,385 | 5.86% | (5.82 - 5.9%) | | Spain | 216,582 | 25,100 | 11.59% | (11.45 - 11.72%) | | Italy | 209,328 | 28,710 | 13.72% | (13.57 - 13.86%) | | UK | 183,500 | 28,205 | 15.37% | (15.21 - 15.54%) | | France | 168,518 | 24,763 | 14.69% | (14.53 - 14.86%) | | Germany | 164,967 | 6,812 | 4.13% | (4.03 - 4.23%) | | China | 83,959 | 4,637 | 5.52% | (5.37 - 5.68%) | | South Korea | 10,793 | 250 | 2.32% | (2.03 - 2.60%) | | Australia | 6,799 | 95 | 1.40% | (1.12 - 1.68%) | | Global | 3,441,767 | 244,021 | 7.09% | (7.06 - 7.12%) | Genetic Epidemiology of COVID-19 How does the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 travel around the world during the 2019/2020 pandemic? Visit this section to learn more about the genetics and genomics tools we can use to trace its spread. |
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