This IS the Avid L2: [Avid-L2] OT: Future of TV (was 4K stuff)

This caught my attention:

"As for delivery... broadcast TV is finished. Its been finished for a long
time. Massively compressed out of sync cable cannot compete with Netflix
and their 'hey watch them all once' business model."

I hear this a lot, but usually from friends outside the industry - people
who are just consumers of content. They use Netflix, Hulu and iTunes, but
most of all they download torrents (I live in NZ, there is virtually
nothing like Netflix here, and iTunes has NO television at all).

It's easy to say from a technological perspective (although pretty flawed
there when you get outside the US) but it completely ignores the business
of television and the psychology of TV watching.

From a content perspective - look at Netflix... Almost all of it's content
(with a few notable exceptions) is from the world of broadcast television.
Even its most popular Netflix Original productions have been derived from
broadcast.

The business of television in the US isn't just domestic either - a massive
amount of revenue is generated from international licensing. In fact the
entire business of television is built on regions and managed rights and
tiers and so much more. It's all resting of broadcast. All of it.

If broadcast TV is finished, then so it content, because while the likes of
Netflix can deliver a lot of great content, it can't come close to filling
the vacuum that would be left if the broadcast TV industry stopped
producing.

And then there's the psychology of TV. While we love to binge on some
shows, a massive amount of television viewing is opportunistic. We sit down
and switch the TV on and flick channels until we find something we feel
like watching.

The choice of Netflix or YouTube is overwhelming - like the feeling of
wandering into a video store of old, where you'd look around for ages for
something, anything, to catch your eye. With broadcast TV we get curated
content - we can pick style by choosing channels we know. With on-demand
content we have to make an active choice - great when we know what we want,
less useful when we just want to "vege out".

While services like Netflix have a LOT going for them, they are entirely
dependent, at least currently, on traditional television to feed them, and
that entire industry is still absolutely rooted in scheduled, season-based,
regionalised content.

Netflix and broadcast have to co-exist and will continue to do so. What
will gradually change is that Netflix may become a primary market - content
created for Netflix is subsequently sold into traditional broadcasting as a
secondary market. This is already happening to some extent - House of Cards
and Orange Is The New Black are both being sold into broadcast in overseas
markets.

Dylan Reeve
http://dylanreeve.com/

On Mon, Aug 26, 2013 at 12:36 PM, mike parsons <mikeparsons.tv@gmail.com>wrote:

> I think this thread has been one of the most depressing I have ever read on
> the Avid-L
>
> For a group of forward thinking industry leading creatives and engineers I
> do not for one second understand the Luddite sentiments expressed.
>
> When the BBC first transmitted news on television they did so in audio only
> as it felt images would detract from the gravitas of reportage. People
> wanted pictures.
>
> In the UK our first high definition tv service was 405 line television. The
> dual transmitted 405 line so as not to upset set owners until Jan 1985
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG52HcgKaD4
>
> But people wanted colour.
>
> Someone in this thread tried to say that flat screen only took off because
> manufacturers could pack more in a container ship. Which is totally untrue.
> People wanted flat screens. The aesthetic of flat screens appeared in the
> last generation of CRTs. People no longer wanted goldfish bowl curved
> screens in the design oriented and square 80s, even light switches lost
> their rounded corners and became more angular. Sharp lines became hip and
> modern.
>
> But more importantly people wanted bigger tvs. Remember rear projection?
> Boxes half the size of a car so dim you had to draw the curtains. People
> like big screens.
>
> But it turns out most movies are not tv shaped so a wider aspect ratio was
> wanted at home. 16:9 was suggested as the best shape to overlay all the
> existing film and tv ratios with least wasted screen space and people
> wanted it. We all know how bad the first plasmas were compared to our
> grade one trinitrons but we wanted them anyway if we are honest. Especially
> when they were 42 inch and we were stuck at 20.
>
> But it wasn't all an erosion of quality. DVD landed at about the same time
> and for the first time the general public heard about component video. From
> being a complex video engineer problem we suddenly started to hear about
> colour difference signals and YUV in pubs and taxis. 'Hey you guys do video
> in there why is component so much better than composite' was a question I'd
> be repeatedly asked leaving work at 2 in the morning in a cab. It was fun
> and I loved it. (I generally left out the 8 field sequence and simplified
> it to it does a lot less stuff to the original signal.)
>
> People saw a Pixar movie on their first component driven screen and they
> wanted it. Never mind that it was 2-3 times the cost of any tv they ever
> had, the picture quality was worth it.
>
> Next came HD. Combined with Blue Ray and HDMI people got their first taste
> of digital video. It didn't hurt that the demo disk was Charlie's Angels
> either. People saw Cameron Diaz in 1920x1080 and they wanted it. And the
> tv.
>
> Its easy as pros to poo poo advances and say things like 'when they can
> deliver the full quality of my RGB monitor to the home then I'll be happy'
> but in reality the last few years has seen home viewing quality move out of
> all relationship to the past. Someone here said look at people's home tvs
> and you'll be horrified' and I agree but the average HD monitor is
> infinitely better quality than the average CRT was with a red gun that died
> 3 years ago.
>
> People care about picture quality. They really do. As pros we might care
> more but its not just marketing hype that drives people to buy more mega
> pixels than they need. Its a desire to document their lives and their
> experiences with as much fidelity as possible. Its a desire to get as close
> to the experience of being there at a sporting event on their 55 inch
> plasma. Its a desire for an immersive entertainment experience. And for
> that folks you can never have too many pixels or too big a TV. You can
> never have too big a tv or too much money.
>
> Its made me sad to hear smart people here saying 'I'll never need to edit
> 4K'. Well you don't actually need to edit HD. AVR70 is perfectly good for
> editing decisions it is after all 'broadcast quality'. Im particularly sad
> to hear 'tv manufacturers just want to move product' because whilst at some
> fundamental business level thats true I'm pretty sure thats not what drives
> the engineers when developing new technology. From spinning disks to Philo
> and his brother in law blowing glass to shadow mask and trinitron, plasma,
> OLED, LCDs and onwards display technology has been a constant unbroken line
> of technological leaps the like of which has not been seen in many other
> industries. 4K is just the next step down that path.
>
> Since my heart surgery I've taken a step back from features and now run a
> tiny post house in Bangkok. I ONLY make tv commercials so its easy for me
> compared to people struggling with days and days of media, but I cut
> everything 2K. I offline edit in Avid or FCP from the original media or HD
> prores if its an awkward 5K Red shoot or Phantom. I then pull the selects
> and grade in Baselight taking rec 709 linear DPX files back to Smoke 2012
> to online. And effects tend to happen in Nuke and any graphics get done in
> After Effects. I have a totally linear online workflow.
>
> 4K is coming and I for one eagerly await next NAB and the 4K monitors.
> Everything else in my building is already specced for 4K, my 16 drive raids
> can deliver, my Kona 3g cards can deliver. My SDI cabling can handle it. I
> fully expect to be at minimum online editing 4K only by the end of next
> year. And so will you all.
>
> As for delivery... broadcast TV is finished. Its been finished for a long
> time. Massively compressed out of sync cable cannot compete with Netflix
> and their 'hey watch them all once' business model. People want to know how
> a show ends and they won't wait until the next episode any more, DVD series
> on disk have forever changed viewing habits
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0ukYf_xvgc
>
> Progress goes one direction, AVR3, AVR70, AVR77 and on - why are we
> collectively now saying we want to stop improving quality?
>
> If I was asked what I want I'd say 8K, 32 bit float, RGB and yes for the
> kids 60fps (this 48fps nonsense is just a halfway house to Showscan) AND
> stereo support. With 7.1 sound. And metadata.
>
> At the end of the day I'm with Barry Stevens, I'm glad my career lasted
> from composite analogue vtrs to float images off compact flash cards. I've
> enjoyed the ride and I'm looking forward as eagerly to the next leap as the
> ones we've all taken so far. Come on guys, get on board.
>
> Mike
>
>
> On Sun, Aug 25, 2013 at 11:36 PM, Terence Curren <tcurren@aol.com> wrote:
>
> > **
> >
> >
> > --- In Avid-L2@yahoogroups.com, owen <owen@...> wrote:
> >
> > "With all that power, you'll be able to do things like seamlessly edit
> > full-resolution 4K video while simultaneously rendering effects in the
> > background"
> >
> > I can't wait to see how you are going to do that over thunderbolt. And
> > what type of drive array you will need.
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Search the official Complete Avid-L archives at:
> http://archives.bengrosser.com/avid/
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]